Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Update

Forecasters William Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach of Colorado State University have adjusted their forecast for the Atlantic Basin hurricane season.

“Information obtained through July 2009 indicates that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be less active than the average 1950-2000 season due largely to the development of an El Niño. We estimate that 2009 will have about:

• 4 hurricanes (average is 5.9)
• 10 named storms (average is 9.6)
• 45 named storm days (average is 49.1)
• 18 hurricane days (average is 24.5)
• 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3)
• 4 major hurricane days (average is 5.0)

The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity is estimated to be below the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone activity in 2009 to be approximately 85 percent of the long-term average. We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early June.”

Unfortunately, it only takes one severe, landfalling hurricane to cause a lot of damage (Hurricane Andrew in 1992 for example). Monitor the weather forecasts and make sure your hurricane preparedness plan is ready.