FBI Official Sees 100% Likelihood of WMD Strike on U.S.

Global Security Newswire, Thursday, Feb. 17, 2011. A senior FBI official said there is a 100 percent chance that the United States at some time will be attacked with a weapon of mass destruction, Newsmax reported on Monday (see GSN, Feb. 14).

"The notion of probability of a WMD attack being low or high is a moot point because we know the probability is 100 percent," FBI Assistant Director for the WMD Directorate Vahid Majidi said. "We’ve seen this in the past, and we will see it in the future. There is going to be an attack using chemical, biological or radiological material."

Majidi said the expected WMD attack could be carried out by an international terrorist group, a lone actor or a criminal operation. An incident would be expected to feature a weapon less devastating than a nuclear bomb due to the difficulty in preparing and transferring such as device.

Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Update

Forecasters William Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach of Colorado State University have adjusted their forecast for the Atlantic Basin hurricane season.

“Information obtained through July 2009 indicates that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be less active than the average 1950-2000 season due largely to the development of an El Niño. We estimate that 2009 will have about:

• 4 hurricanes (average is 5.9)
• 10 named storms (average is 9.6)
• 45 named storm days (average is 49.1)
• 18 hurricane days (average is 24.5)
• 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3)
• 4 major hurricane days (average is 5.0)

The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity is estimated to be below the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone activity in 2009 to be approximately 85 percent of the long-term average. We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early June.”

Unfortunately, it only takes one severe, landfalling hurricane to cause a lot of damage (Hurricane Andrew in 1992 for example). Monitor the weather forecasts and make sure your hurricane preparedness plan is ready.

Thunderstorms, Lightning & Tornadoes - eNewsletter

Summer is thunderstorm season, and thunderstorms bring lightning, heavy rainfall, hail, and tornadoes. Resulting fatalities, property damage, and losses from business interruption are significant. Natural hazards can’t be prevented, but emergency management can protect life, mitigation can reduce property damage, and business continuity planning can speed recovery and reduce operational impacts.

What is the potential impact on your business from a lightning strike or surge? What would you do if a tornado warning were issued?

Review this eNewsletter to learn more about the hazards of thunderstorms, lightning, and tornadoes. Identify mitigation opportunities and considerations for your emergency management and business continuity program.

http://www.preparednessllc.com/enewsletter/enewsletter_home.html

Pandemic Preparedness

The World Health Organization has raised the current phase of pandemic alert to 5. “Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.”

The number of infections and severity of illness of this influenza outbreak is hard to estimate at this time. Therefore, it is prudent to review and update pandemic preparedness plans written years ago. This eNewsletter provides guidance on steps that your organization can take to review, update, develop, and exercise a pandemic preparedness plan.

Program Management

Assemble members of your pandemic preparedness team, and review official reports of the swine flu outbreak, guidance from public health authorities with jurisdiction over your facilities, and the status of existing policies, plans, and procedures. Your pandemic team should be lead by senior management to provide direction and support. The heads of operations, legal, communications, human resources, medical, facilities, supply chain, security, environmental health and safety, emergency management, and business continuity or their representatives should participate.

If pandemic preparedness roles and responsibilities have not been defined within your plan, define them now.

Prevention & Mitigation Measures

Now is the time to promote proper personal hygiene by posting and distributing “cover your cough” and hand washing educational literature available from public health authorities. Consider providing hand sanitizers, setting up hand sanitation stations for visitors and or distributing literatures to arriving guests.

Evaluate methods for “social distancing” that may be needed to separate workers and make them more comfortable in the work environment.

Company Policies & Procedures

Review company policies and procedures including travel, sick leave, family leave, and telecommuting.

Prepare to revise travel policies if governmental authorities issue travel advisories. Recognize that employees may resist assignments requiring travel to areas perceived to be at greater risk.

Review sick and family leave policies. Employees that are rewarded for not using sick leave may come to work even though they are ill. Review family leave policies regarding time off to care for sick family members. Consider employees needing dependent (child and elder) care when schools or other facilities are closed.

Test the ability to support large numbers of telecommuters and verify that employees have secure connectivity to work remotely.

Pandemic Preparedness Plan

The pandemic preparedness plan should align with the U.S. and WHO pandemic alert phases. Preparedness activities should be commensurate with the current alert level. Review your planning assumptions and discuss the implications of scenarios that are more severe than the assumptions used for development of your plan.

Pandemic preparedness plans should address the following planning tasks.

• Succession of management; transfer of authority and responsibility
• Coordination with government officials
• Business continuity: Identification of essential business functions and minimum resources to support them; maintenance of supply and distribution chain
• Infection control in the workplace
• Surveillance of employee health; forecasting employee absences
• Sustaining essential employees; employee family care requirements
• Risk communications

Review the succession of management, supervisory and operations staff and your organization’s governance requirements. If managers, supervisors, or key employees are sick or unavailable to work, who can assume their job duties? Review cross training and documentation needed for substitutes to assume the responsibilities of absent employees.

“the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.” WHO

Assign staff to monitor official instructions from public health and governmental authorities to ensure you have the latest and most accurate information. Subscribe to government mailing lists to receive their latest broadcasts.

Review your business continuity plan to identify critical business functions and the internal and external resources—including people—needed to support them. Evaluate critical suppliers and vendors and their ability to provide continuous service during a pandemic. Carefully scrutinize single or sole sources suppliers and identify backups, if necessary.

Monitor the health and well being of employees and their families. This will enable you to forecast absences and plan for the absences of sick employees or those who must care for sick family members or who must remain at home because of the lack of child or senior care. Review guidance documents on how to support the psychological needs of employees.

Communications during any emergency is critical, so implementation of a risk communications plan is essential. Consider all of the audiences that you need to reach including employees and their families, customers, suppliers, tenants within your buildings, and others. Provide timely, factual information and identify where recipients can obtain additional information.

Training and Exercises

Pandemic preparedness like all aspects of your emergency management and business continuity plan requires training and exercising. Conduct a plan walk-through exercise to familiarize personnel with the plan and their role and responsibilities. Conduct a tabletop exercise to identify any gaps in plans or the ability of team members to carry out the plan. Scribe action items, prioritize, and follow-through to assure that tasks are completed.

Pandemic Planning Resources

• World Health Organization (WHO) Swine influenza page, WHO phase of pandemic alert
• PandemicFlu.gov, U.S. Department of Health & Human Services
• Business Pandemic Influenza Planning Checklist, PandemicFlu.gov
• HHS Pandemic Influenza Plan Supplement 11 Workforce Support: Psychosocial Considerations and Information Needs
• Pandemic Influenza Preparedness, Response, and Recovery Guide for Critical Infrastructure and Key Resources, U. S. Department of Homeland Security
• Guidance on Preparing Workplaces for an Influenza Pandemic, OSHA 3327
• Influenza Pandemic: Continuity Planning Guide for Canadian Business, Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters

All of these resources can be accessed here.

Flood Preparedness

April showers bring May flowers, but they also can cause serious flooding. There have been 1,161 federal disaster declarations for flooding since 1954 and 300 since January 2000. One of six federally declared disasters this decade has been the result of flooding. The economic and human impact is also significant. Flooding causes more damage in the United States than any other severe weather related event—on average $5 billion a year. Over the past 30 years (1978 – 2007), 99 lives have been lost each year in floods.

Flooding is caused when bodies of water (e.g., rivers, streams, lakes, oceans, etc.) overflow their normal boundaries. Flooding can also occur as storm water runoff accumulates in normally dry areas.

Melting snow can combine with rain in the winter and early spring; severe thunderstorms can bring heavy rain in the spring and summer; or tropical cyclones can bring intense rainfall to the coastal and inland states in the summer and fall.

Flash floods occur within six hours of a rain event, or after a dam or levee failure, or following a sudden release of water held by an ice or debris jam.

Flood preparedness begins with site selection. Choose building sites that are not within a 500-year flood zone, not subject to flash foods, and not located where access roads, bridges, and critical infrastructure (e.g., utilities) will be disrupted by flood waters. Flood preparedness for existing buildings includes conducting a flood hazard analysis (risk assessment), mitigating the potential impacts of flood waters, development of a flood emergency plan, and development of a recovery plan to restore damaged equipment and reopen buildings.

Flood Hazard Analysis

There are many resources for assessing flood inundation. Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) can be created on demand from FEMA’s online Map Service Center. Hard copies can be obtained at local municipal offices.

FEMA Flood Insurance Studies provide background information on the development of flood maps and describe the flood history of a community. Consult with local officials about past flooding and development in the vicinity of your buildings. Check the National Inventory of Dams to identify substandard dams that could fail causing flash flooding. Review recent development and changes to drainage or flood control efforts that could increase or decrease the potential for flooding.

The goal of the flood hazard analysis is to identify areas subject to flooding, maximum anticipated flood elevations, and whether flood waters will restrict access to the property or shutdown utilities that are required to run the facility. The maximum flood elevation should be compared to site and finished floor elevations to determine the buildings, storage, machinery, or utilities that could be inundated by flood waters. Keep in mind that flood surveys and flood maps are not perfect, and areas not thought to be subject to flooding are flooded, and “100 year” floods can occur in successive years.

Flood Mitigation

Flood mitigation begins with evaluation of the site’s storm water management. Site layout, grading, and storm-water drainage should be sized and arranged to direct 100 year level flood waters away from important buildings, process equipment, outside storage, and utilities. Protect against soil erosion, and use grates, curbs, or other means to prevent drains from becoming clogged by debris.

Install backflow preventers on discharge lines connected to wastewater and storm-water runoff sewer systems, on floor drains, and any other equipment that have a history of backups.

Protect existing building entry points with barriers to keep water out as long as possible. Install ramps or stairways to go over the barriers. Locate or elevate critical machinery, equipment, and storage above the 500 year flood elevation. Securely anchor outside storage tanks and process equipment that could break away during flooding.

Flood Emergency Plan

A flood emergency plan should be developed for all facilities that are subject to flooding. The plan should address protection of buildings or portions of buildings (e.g., below-grade or first floor) that are below the maximum flood elevation. The plan should also address the relocation, removal, temporary elevation of, or protection in place of raw materials and finished goods, production machinery and equipment, and utilities that could become flooded. Don’t forget to warn employees about the dangers of flood waters and never to drive into flooded roadways.

Ensure that maintenance and engineering facilities, spare parts, and engineering drawings, vital records, and restoration procedures are located in a safe area or relocated prior to a flood. This ensures that resources and information needed to recover from flood damage are immediately available after flood waters recede.

The flood emergency plan should include an organization that vests authority in a leader who is thoroughly familiar with the flood hazard, available resources, and the flood emergency plan. The plan should define roles and responsibilities and actions to be taken when flood watches and flood warnings are issued.

Monitor the National Weather Service’s River Forecasts and local emergency management officials’ forecasts of flooding in the area.

The plan should identify all resources (and how to procure all resources) to prepare for and recover from flooding. This includes the required complement of personnel and material handling equipment to complete flood preparations before evacuation is mandated or flood waters threaten. Periodically verify that all resources are available and in good condition.

The flood emergency plan should include the timing and shutdown procedures for gas and electric utilities, machinery, and equipment and the relocation of movable furniture, equipment, and storage to higher elevation.

A business continuity plan should define strategies and the resources needed to continue critical business operations for the maximum duration of any shutdown.

Recovering After the Flood

The flood emergency plan should also address repair and restoration of damaged buildings and equipment after flood waters recede. Contract for, or procure in advance, generators, pumps, and equipment to remove water, clean up mud and debris, and check and repair damaged utilities and equipment. Document manufacturer’s instructions or best practices for restarting water damaged systems and equipment in the plan, so work can begin as soon as it is safe. Review the “Directories of Products & Services,” “Machinery & Equipment Restoration,” and “Cleanup” resources on the Preparedness, LLC website for access to technical documents and resources.

Improvised Explosive Device Awareness - Course of Actions

Every facility emergency operations plan should include procedures for bomb threats and receipt of suspicous packages. When I reviewed the following article, I thought it was timely advice worth passing along. The following advice is reprinted from the Emergency Management and Response Information Sharing and Analysis Center (EMR-ISAC) CIP Bulletin 11-08, December 22, 2008. If you would like to obtain additional resources for bomb threats and suspicious packages, please check out the "Bomb Threats & Suspicious Packages" links on the "Resources" page of the Preparedness, LLC website.

Overview

Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) can be arranged in a number of configurations, the only limitation to their design and functionality is the bomber’s imagination. The first action for awareness is identification of the suspect IED. Unattended or suspicious packages or containers could potentially contain an explosive device and should be reported to security personnel immediately. Likewise, individuals behaving suspiciously or vehicles that seem out of place could also represent an explosive threat and should be reported immediately to security personnel.

Preliminary Actions

Authorities, first responders, and citizens should take the following actions to strengthen the existing security posture in the event of a bomb threat:

• Most bomb threats are received by phone. Remain calm and try to obtain information necessary for responders. (Be sure a bomb threat checklist like the one available from ATF is posted at all phones that can receive incoming calls--especially whoever answers the main incoming line.)
• Preserve any evidence if the threat is received in a note or letter, and do not handle it.
• Conduct a cursory search of the venue/facility for items or packages that may be out of place.
• Use CCTV capabilities to monitor activities inside the facility, and along the periphery of the building, after notification of a threat.
• Follow evacuation procedures keeping clear of the location of any suspected device and assemble at a safe location distant from or protected frm the location of the suspected device.
• Check to be sure the pre-designated evacuation route and assembly area is clear of any potential threats, such as a secondary device. A secondary location should be identified in advance, in the event the first site is compromised.
• Be vigilant for characteristics of a suspect suicide bomber (e.g., wearing bulky clothing or coat, or attire uncharacteristic for the season; exhibiting nervousness or a distant look; sweating profusely, etc.)

Immediate Actions

Follow these steps when a suspect IED is encountered:

• Once out of the immediate area of the suspect IED, call 911 immediately;
• Employees should be trained not touch or disturb suspect items in any way;
• Immediately evacuate the surrounding area, for small packages (e.g. pipe bomb, briefcases etc.) a minimum of 300 ft is recommended;
• Prior to evacuation, check the designated evacuation assembly site, to ensure additional IEDs have not been placed to target those evacuating the venue.
• Do not use cellular phones or two-way radios in the immediate area of the device, since this action may cause the device to detonate.
• Remain vigilant for any additional suspicious activity.
• Identify interdependencies in the immediate area that could compound the effects of a detonation (e.g. gas lines, electric grids etc.), and consider increasing evacuation distances.

Follow On Actions

The following actions are vital, since the possibility for an additional incident cannot be eliminated:

• Conduct immediate review of any video or pictures captured by CCTV system.
• Attempt to gain information from those evacuated regarding what they may have witnessed.
• Immediately record any details from witnesses for law enforcement needs.
• Determine if evacuees took any videos or photos prior to the attack, and attempt to obtain that documentation for evidentiary purposes for the authorities.
• Look for anyone monitoring the response and notify responding law enforcement authorities of these actions.. (e.g. videoing the site, conducting time checks, taking notes, monitoring radio traffic with a scanner etc.)

Preparing for Arctic Freeze & Winter Storms

Before the heavy snow warnings are broadcast and the frigid blasts of arctic weather arrive, it’s important to prepare your facility and your employees. Preparations now can save costly damage to equipment and facilities and maintain important fire and life safety systems.

Loss Data

A study by property insurer FM Global[1] for the period 1984 through 1995 revealed over 3500 freeze-related insurance claims. Of these incidents, 42% were due to sprinkler leakage, which accounted for 17% of the gross dollar loss estimate. Process equipment breakdown due to freezing accounted for 10% of the incidents but 26% of the gross dollars.

FM Global’s analysis revealed a pattern of freezing over the Christmas holidays when planned reductions in production, shutdowns, and vacations occur. Idle facilities contributed to reduced space heating, reduced or no heat in production equipment, and few or no people to monitor temperature and respond to freeze conditions.

Winter Preparations

Walk the entire roof and check to ensure roof drains, gutters, and downspouts are clear. Clean any accumulations of leaves or other debris that could be swept into and clog drains. Check all roof mounted equipment to ensure air conditioners, fan housings, antennas, signs, and other equipment is properly anchored and access panels are secure. Check to ensure roof flashing is intact and roof vents are tight. Plan for access to the roof in case the roof hatch is inaccessible.

Evaluate the structural strength of sections of roofs likely to accumulate heavy snow drifts and water. Excessive snow drifts increase the weight applied to the structure and can cause collapse. These areas include intersections of low and high roofs; valleys between two peaked roofs; intersection of roof and roof mounted equipment. Look for bent, deflected, twisted roof members/decks that might indicate susceptibility to overload.

Prepare all sprinkler systems, heating systems, process equipment, emergency generator, and snow removal equipment or service. Check that sufficient heat will be available in buildings protected by wet pipe sprinkler systems. Drain condensate from the low points of all dry pipe sprinkler systems and ensure that heating equipment in valve closets are working properly. Check fire pump house and suction/gravity tank heaters as well. Use approved heat trace on exposed pipes that cannot be drained.

Preparations before the Arctic Freeze or Winter Storm

• Determine personnel and resource needs to protect the facility and handle storm cleanup.
• Review emergency plans for loss of heat, electricity, and protection system impairments. Assign responsibilities and review alerting and communications procedures.
• Test emergency generators under a full load at least annually. Maintain generator fuel tanks ¾ full. Arrange for fuel delivery before a storm approaches.

When an Arctic Freeze or Winter Storm is Forecast

• Monitor National Weather Service and local news media advisories.
• Have security guards check for low temperatures, open doors, cracked windows, or other openings that can allow the cold to enter.
• Check fire protection and life safety systems periodically.
• Monitor temperatures in areas with water pipes to detect low temperatures—especially those not normally occupied.
• Check exterior windows to ensure they are intact and water tight and doors align with frames.
• Prepare to activate your emergency management and business continuity plan and alert staff to respond if called.
• Keep driveways clear for emergency vehicle access. Coordinate with your contractor or Public Works as needed.
• Clear the exterior of exit doors to allow for emergency egress.
• Shovel areas around sprinkler valves and fire hydrants to allow emergency access. Inspect roof drains and remove any debris.
• Clear roof drains of ice dams to allow melting snow to drain.
• Clear exterior down spouts of snow or ice buildup at outlets.
• Stay alert for the beginning of ponding-deflection cycles. As snow compresses, it absorbs rainwater and the increased weight on the roof will create depressions where water will accumulate and not drain. Often this condition worsens and leads to roof collapse.
• Remove dangerous snow loads if deemed safe. Priority areas include changes in roof elevation, moderate or low-sloped peaked single gable or curved roofs where winds cause drifting, valleys formed by multiple-gable or multiple peaked roofs, and roofs with multiple projections.
• Remove snow from standing seam metal roofs in strips starting at the peak to the eaves alternating side to side to assure the roof load is maintained in balance.
• Maintain awareness of surface water flooding caused by poor street drainage. Direct surface water away from the building.

If Heat is Lost and Pipes Freeze

• Use only approved space heaters to provide temporary heating. Check with the local fire department to determine what is approved for your area. Kerosene and propane heaters should only be used if permitted and in supervised areas where adequate ventilation and fire protection is available.
• Do not use torches to thaw frozen pipes.
• Follow insurer and fire department required impairment precautions if sprinkler systems freeze.

This eNewsletter has been published by Preparedness, LLC and is available on our website. You can subscribe to future eNewsletters from the website.

[1] FM Global Property Loss Prevention Data Sheet 9-18/17-18, January 2007

WORLD AT RISK: The Report of the Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism

After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 I was asked to coauthor a book to provide guidance to the private sector on the subject of terrorism and how to protect employees, facilities, and operations. The book, "Business at Risk How to Assess, Mitigate, and Respond to Terrorist Threats," is still current today and it provides a wealth of information. That's why this report immediately captivated my interest.

Frankly, with the economic climate, businesses are looking to survive financially and are largely unable to focus on the threat of terrorism. I argue that managing the potential impacts of natural, man-made, and technological hazards—including terrorism—needs to be integral to the planning of every business. Sound emergency management, business continuity, and crisis management programs are an essential part of that planning.

If something significant happens, how prepared will businesses be?

WORLD AT RISK: The Report of the Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism

"The Commission believes that unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013.

The Commission further believes that terrorists are more likely to be able to obtain and use a biological weapon than a nuclear weapon. The Commission believes that the U.S. government needs to move more aggressively to limit the proliferation of biological weapons and reduce the prospect of a bioterror attack.

The Role of the Citizen

A well informed and mobilized citizenry has long been one of our nation’s greatest resources. The next administration therefore should, within six months, work with state and local governments to develop a checklist of actions that need to be taken to improve efforts at all levels of government to prevent WMD proliferation and terrorism. Citizens should hold their governments accountable for completing this checklist.

Insufficient effort has been made to engage the public in the prevention of WMD terrorism, even though public tips have provided clues necessary to disrupt terrorist plots against the homeland. We need to give our citizens guidance on what to expect from their government at all levels and on how to be engaged in the prevention of WMD terrorism.

RECOMMENDATION 13: The next administration must work to openly and honestly engage the American citizen, encouraging a participatory approach to meeting the challenges of the new century."

Impact of Earthquakes on the Central USA

I just reviewed the following research paper on the potential impact of earthquakes in the Central United States. When we think of earthquakes, we think about the West Coast and California in particular. The fact is that all of the West Coast is susceptible as well as the New Madrid Region of the Central United States where a series of catastrophic quakes occurred in the early 1800's. There are other areas of the U.S.A. that could suffer moderate earthquake damage as well.

The follow abstract of a research study was recently published by the Mid-America Earthquake Center at the University of Illinois. The report is the outcome of one of the largest and most comprehensive earthquake consequence assessment projects fundedby the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The report contains earthquake impact assessments for the 8 central US (CUSEC) states, and lists damage and other consequences to the built environment as well as social and economic impacts. The earthquake scenarios used represent the New Madrid, the Wabash Valley and the East Tennesseeseismic zones. The analysis employs new and more reliable hazard and inventory data that has not been used before.The project is managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers' Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, and the work was undertaken in partnership with the Institute for Crisis, Disaster and RiskManagement at the George Washington University, with contributions forthe 8 State Geological Surveys, IEM, FEMA, US Geological Survey and CUSEC.

"The region of potential impact due to earthquake activity in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is comprised of eight states: Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee. Moreover, the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ) in southern Illinois and southeast Indiana and the East Tennessee Seismic Zone in eastern Tennessee and northeastern Alabama constitute significant risk of moderate-to-severe earthquakes throughout the central region of the USA.

The hazard employed in this investigation includes ground shaking for three seismic zones and various events within those zones. The NMSZ consists of three fault segments: the northeast segment, the reelfoot thrust or central segment, and the southwest segment. Each segment comprises a deterministic, magnitude 7.7 (Mw7.7) earthquake caused by a rupture over the entire length of the segment. The employed magnitude was provided by US Geological Survey (USGS). The NMSZ represents the first of three hazard events utilized in this report. Two deterministic events are also included, namely a magnitude Mw7.1 in the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ) and a magnitude Mw5.9 in the East Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) earthquakes.

• The results indicate that the State of Tennessee incurs the highest level of damage and social impacts. Over 250,000 buildings are moderately or more severely damaged, over 260,000 people are displaced and well over 60,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities) are expected. Total direct economic losses surpass $56 billion.
• The State of Missouri also incurs substantial damage and loss, though estimates are less than those in Tennessee. Well over 80,000 buildings are damaged leaving more than 120,000 people displaced and causing over 15,000 casualties. Total direct economic losses in Missouri reach nearly $40 billion.
• Kentucky and Illinois also incur significant losses with total direct economic losses reaching approximately $45 and $35 billion, respectively.
• The State of Arkansas incurs nearly $19 billion in direct economic loss while the State of Mississippi incurs $9.5 billion in direct economic losses.
• States such as Indiana and Alabama experience limited damage and loss from NMSZ events with approximately $1.5 and $1.0 billion, respectively.

Noting that experience confirms that the indirect economic loss due to business interpretation and loss of market share, amongst other features, is at least as high if not much higher than the direct economic losses, the total economic impact of a series of NMSZ earthquakes is likely to constitute by far the highest economic loss due to a natural disaster in the USA.

The results are designed to provide emergency managers and agencies with information required to establish response plans based on likely impacts of plausible earthquakes in the central USA."

As you conduct your risk assessment to build your risk mitigation, emergency management, and business continuity program, you might want to take a look at this important research report. Take a look at some of the resource links on the Preparedness, LLC website to help you assess earthquake risk and build your program to respond to and recover from and earthquake event.

Office of the Director of National Intelligence Releases Global Trends Projections

I tend to be optimistic, but my profession tells me to continually evaluate risks so we can prevent, mitigate, and prepare to respond and recover if something bad happens. Well, the following report from the ODNI speaks to global trends and not the good trends we like to see. Food for thought as we look ahead to the future challenges.

"By 2025, the accelerating pace of globalization and the emergence of new powers will produce a world order vastly different from the system in place for most of the post-World War II era, according to a projection by the federal government's top intelligence analysts.

The projection, prepared by the National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, was made public by the ODNI today.

The ODNI report, “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” projects a still-preeminent U.S. joined by fast developing powers, notably India and China, atop a multipolar international system. The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons, the report says. Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the uneven impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions, “Global Trends 2025” concludes.

The report extrapolates from current and projected trends. It is not a prediction, and the authors stress that “bad outcomes are not inevitable.”

“International leadership and cooperation will be necessary to solve the global challenges and to understand the complexities surrounding them,” the report concludes.

“By laying out some of the alternative possibilities we hope to help policymakers steer us toward more positive solutions.” Other projections in “Global Trends 2025”: include:

• Russia's emergence as a world power is clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector and the persistence of crime and government corruption.
• Muslim states outside the Arab core – Turkey, Indonesia, even a post-clerical Iran – could take on expanded roles in the new international order.
• A government in Eastern or Central Europe could be effectively taken over and run by organized crime. In parts of Africa and South Asia, some states might wither away as governments fail to provide security and other basic needs.
• A worldwide shift to a new technology that replaces oil will be under way or accomplished by 2025.
• Multiple financial centers will serve as 'shock absorbers' in the world financial system. The U.S. dollar's role will shrink to 'first among equals' in a basket of key world currencies.
• The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes.
• The impact of climate change will be uneven, with some Northern economies, notably Russia and Canada, profiting from longer growing seasons and improved access to resource reserves.

The Global Trends series examines geopolitical trends and analyzes their likely outcomes, in an attempt to prompt public discussion of possible responses. The projections have covered five-year intervals, beginning with Global Trends 2010 issued in November 1997."

http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

October is National Cyber Security Awareness Month

For the fifth year, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s National Cyber Security Division (NCSD) is spearheading National Cyber Security Awareness Month, a comprehensive outreach campaign to empower all Americans and businesses to take steps to secure their part of cyberspace. During the month of October, events will take place across the country to raise awareness of the growing need to protect the Nation’s critical infrastructures and key resources from cyber threats and vulnerabilities.The NCSD is partnering with the National Cyber Security Alliance and the Multi-State Information Sharing and Analysis Center, along with other government agencies and the private sector. The month's activities include press and media events, educational workshops, state cyber exercises, and lectures hosted by public and private partners, proclamations by state governors, and other stakeholder outreach activities. Here are 10 actions you can take to improve cyber security in your organization:

1. Use strong passwords at work and at home. Update your password frequently and encourage others to do the same.
2. Make sure that your anti-virus software and firewalls are up-to-date. New threats are discovered everyday and keeping your software and firewalls updated is one of the easiest ways to protect yourself from an attack. Set your computer to automatically update for you.
3. Hold an event at your facility designed to increase cyber security education and awareness. Download EDUCAUSE’s cyber resource kit online at http://www.educause.edu/7479.
4. Reach out to people that you know – your children, co-workers, friends – about good online safety and security habits, including protecting their personal information and their reputation. For more information and tips go to http://www.staysafeonline.org/ and http://www.us-cert.gov/.
5. Print cyber security posters from http://www.onguardonline.gov%20/ and post them in workrooms, hallways, bathrooms and other employee gathering places. Print and post cyber security tips near your computer at home and at work. Review them with your colleagues, employees and family members.
6. Create a separate section for cyber security tips on your organization’s web site. Download online buttons and banners about phishing, identity theft, file-sharing, and other cyber security topics at http://www.msisac.org/ or http://www.onguardonline.gov/ and place on your organization’s home page.
7. Use regular communications – newsletters, email alerts, websites, etc. – as an opportunity to promote your commitment to cyber security. Some newsletter topics to consider include: updating software processes; protecting personal identifiable information; and securing your wireless network.
8. Subscribe to the National Cyber Alert System from the US Computer Emergency Readiness Team at http://www.blogger.com/www.us-cert.gov. Through the Alert System, you can receive timely information about current cyber security problems to protect home and office computers. This information includes weekly bulletins with summaries of new vulnerabilities, patch information when available, and tips on common security topics, such as privacy, email spam, and wireless protection.
9. Back up important files. If you have important files stored on your computer, back them up to removal media, to a server, and best yet to an online backup service. Secure your backup media to prevent unauthorized access and store the media in a location where it will not be damaged from a hazard that affects your computer (what if your place of business was destroyed by fire?)
10. Ask IT security specialists at your workplace to report any potential cyber incident, threat, or attack to the United States Computer Emergency Readiness Team (USCERT) at 1-888-282-0870 or US-CERT.gov.

These links along with dozens of others that related to risk assessment, hazard prevention, risk mitigation, emergency response, and business contininuity have been added to the growing "Resources" page of the Preparedness, LLC website.

References & Resources: Links to Helpful Information

I recently updated the "Resources" within the Preparedness, LLC website. It includes more than five printable pages of references and resources for risk assessment, prevention and mitigation, emergency planning, business continuity, training, and more. There are links for laws and regulations, codes and standards, government agencies, nonprofit/professional organizations, and more. There are also many links to excellent, peer reviewed technical documents that open in HTML or PDF format from their hosted websites. It will always be a work in progress, but I will do my best to keep it updated. If you have suggestions for additons to the page, please let me know.

Copycat White Powder Mailings

From the Emergency Management and Response Information Sharing and Analysis Center, INFOGRAM 35-08 September 11, 2008:

“Various State Fusion Centers and news sources recently reported about the rash of copy cat mailings throughout the nation containing white powder. The letters and packages have been sent to well known political figures and local government offices as well as to the homes and work sites of individuals not involved in public life. Upon reviewing these reports, the Emergency EMR-ISAC learned that to date none of the mailings were determined to be dangerous by responding hazardous materials teams."

Do you remember what happened in October 2001 when Senator Daschle, Tom Brokaw, an innocent grandmother in Fairfield County Connecticut, and others received anthrax laden mail? Thankfully these cases have been hoaxes, but are you prepared if someone reports receiving a suspicious envelope or package. CDC and GSA have some good information to help with planning. The guidance needs to be integrated into an emergency management program that includes people organized and trained to respond.